TRANSICIÓN Y PERSISTENCIA EN EL CICLO FORMAL-INFORMAL EN MÉXICO
El papel del capital humano en la dinámica laboral
Abstract
This paper analyzes the role of human capital in the formal-informal transition of workers in Mexico. We create a dynamic pooled aligned panel of 44 quarters, using a series of quarterly panel data that follows each individual for 5 consecutive quarters, using the Mexican Employment Survey. Using this synthetic dataset we estimate a dynamic multinomial logit model and classify potential working force people in four labor states: formal, informal, unemployed, and outside the labor market. Our results show that: 1) persistence is greater in informality vs. formality, and 2) worker’s human capital plays an important role in formal-informal transitions. In particular, worker’s education not only increases the probability of being formal but also increases the probability of entering and/or remaining into formality.
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