EMPLEO Y FORMALIZACIÓN LABORAL JUVENIL EN COLOMBIA. UNA EVALUACIÓN DE LA LEY DEL PRIMER EMPLEO
Employment and youth labour formalization in Colombia. An assessment of the law of first employment
Abstract
En el presente documento se analiza el impacto de la ley 1429 de 2010 sobre el empleo y la formalización laboral de los jóvenes en Colombia. La evaluación de impacto se realiza a partir de un modelo de diferencias en diferencias considerando los primeros y últimos trimestres de los años anteriores y posteriores a la entrada en vigencia la ley. Los resultados indican que los efectos de la ley fueron diferenciales sobre grupos sociodemográficos de jóvenes tanto en el corto como en el largo plazo. Aunque en el corto plazo la ley aumentó la probabilidad de encontrar empleo para este grupo en general, también aumentó la probabilidad de encontrarse en situación de informalidad. Casi un año después de la aplicación de la ley, la probabilidad de estar ocupado disminuyó al igual que la probabilidad de ser informal. Los jóvenes más cualificados sin embargo, afrontaron menores probabilidades de empleo en el trimestre posterior a la reforma y mayores niveles de informalidad después de varios meses de la implementación de la ley.
Palabras clave: empleo, informalidad laboral, política pública.
Clasificación JEL: J21, J46, J48.
In this paper, we study the impact of the law 1429 of December 2010 on both employment and labor formalization of young workers in Colombia. To asset the policy impact, we use an econometric model of differences in differences considering the first and the last quarter of the periods before and after the law was applied. Results suggest different effects of the law on young socio-demographic groups both in the short and in the long run. In the short run, the law increased the probability of finding a job but also the probability of being an informal worker. Several months later, both the probability of finding a job and the probability of being informal decreased. The most educated young workers, however, faced lower probabilities of employment in the quarter after the law and higher levels of informality one year later.
Key words: employment, labour informality, public policy.
JEL Classification: J21, J46, J48.
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